Grains Report 09/11/19

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Sep 11
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL September Sep. 12, 2019 96 Sep 09, 2019
SOYBEAN OIL September Sep. 12, 2019 60 Sep 04, 2019
ROUGH RICE September Sep. 12, 2019 63 Sep 09, 2019
CORN September Sep. 12, 2019 261 Sep 09, 2019
KC HRW WHEAT September Sep. 12, 2019 3 Sep 10, 2019
SOYBEAN September Sep. 12, 2019 226 Sep 10, 2019
WHEAT September Sep. 12, 2019 23 Sep 04, 2019

DJ U.S. Corn, Soybean Production Estimates — Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates for 2019 U.S. corn and soybean production in millions of bushels, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. Yield estimates are in bushels per acre and harvested acres are in million acres. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release its monthly estimates at noon on Thursday.
U.S. 2019 Production, Yield (million bushels, bushels per acre)
Average Range USDA August USDA 2018
Corn Production 13,614 13,040-14,003 13,901 14,420
Soybean Production 3,596 3,499-3,745 3,680 4,544
Corn Yield 166.7 163.0-170.7 169.5 176.4
Soybean Yield 47.2 46.0-49.0 48.5 51.6
Corn Soybean
Production Yield Production Yield
Advanced Market 13,530 165.0 3,529 46.5
AgriSource 13,596 166.0 3,524 46.5
Allendale 13,755 N/A 3,499 N/A
DC Analysis 13,701 167.0 3,593 47.4
Doane 13,500 165.0 3,565 47.0
EDF Man 13,860 169.0 3,642 48.0
Farm Futures 14,003 170.7 3,720 49.0
Grain Cycles 13,530 165.0 3,522 46.4
INTL FCStone 13,640 168.4 3,647 48.3
Sid Love Consulting 13,530 165.0 3,605 47.5
Northstar 13,700 168.0 3,567 47.0
Price Futures 13,480 164.4 3,580 47.2
RJOBrien 13,782 168.0 3,650 48.1
RMC 13,653 166.5 3,680 46.0
US Commodities 13,040 163.0 3,552 46.8
Vantage RM 13,776 168.0 3,605 47.5
Western Milling 13,245 165.4 3,745 47.5
Zaner Ag Hedge 13,722 169.0 3,506 46.5

DJ U.S. September Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of bushels for U.S. ending stockpiles for 2018-19 and 2019-20, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Thursday at noon ET.
U.S. Stockpiles (millions)
2018-19
Average Range USDA August
Corn 2,398 2,280-2,460 2,360
Soybeans 1,043 990-1,084 1,070
2019-20
Average Range USDA August
Corn 1,965 1,570-2,269 2,181
Soybeans 661 565-797 755
Wheat 1,014 909-1,037 1,014
2018-19 2019-20
Corn Soybeans Corn Soybeans Wheat
Advanced Market 2,400 1,025 1,851 600 1,005
AgriSource 2,380 1,055 1,870 603 1,025
Allendale 2,417 1,045 2,157 649 1,017
DC Analysis 2,420 1,020 2,091 628 909
Doane 2,440 1,010 1,990 650 1030
EDF Man 2,360 1,070 2,141 717 1010
Farm Futures 2,400 1,044 2,269 797 1,013
Grain Cycles 2,405 1,065 1,835 647 1,014
INTL FCStone 2,344 993 2,004 725 1,037
Sid Love Consulting 2,360 1,070 1,810 679 1,034
Northstar 2,460 990 2,100 660 1,025
Price Futures 2,435 1,015 1,835 599 1,014
RJOBrien 2,449 1,022 2,101 721 1,027
RMC 2,420 1,070 2,090 565 1,014
US Commodities 2,435 1084 1,570 646 1,030
Vantage RM 2,385 1,070 2,056 680 1,014
Western Milling 2,380 1,038 1,600 723 1,022
Zaner Ag Hedge 2,280 1,080 1,992 616 1,009

DJ September World Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of metric tons for world grain and soybean ending stockpiles for 2018-19 and 2019-20, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Thursday at noon ET.
World Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2018-19
Average Range USDA August
Corn 329.6 327.0-332.3 328.6
Soybeans 114.1 113.0-115.9 114.5
Wheat 275.3 272.0-276.9 275.5
2019-20
Average Range USDA August
Corn 301.8 292.7-307.0 307.7
Soybeans 101.6 97.0-119.0 101.7
Wheat 285.5 283.0-288.1 285.4
2018-19 2019-20
Corn Soybeans Wheat Corn Soybeans Wheat
Advanced Market 327.0 113.0 274.5 298.0 98.0 283.5
Allendale 329.4 114.2 275.5 307.0 99.8 283.6
Doane 330.5 113.0 275.0 305.0 100.0 283.5
EDF Man 328.6 114.5 275.5 307.0 101.0 286.0
Farm Futures 332.3 113.0 272.0 302.0 101.7 284.7
Grain Cycles 329.0 115.0 275.5 297.5 102.5 286.0
INTL FCStone 330.1 115.9 276.9 302.8 119.0 288.1
Northstar 330.0 113.0 276.0 306.0 100.0 288.0
RMC N/A N/A N/A 300.7 97.0 285.4
US Commodities 329.2 115.0 276.0 292.7 98.2 287.0
Western Milling 329.5 114.0 276.0 298.0 102.0 283.0
Zaner Ag Hedge N/A N/A N/A 304.5 99.6 287.2

BRIEF-Brazil’s Conab raises 2018/19 corn export forecast to 35 mln T – Reuters
10-Sep-2019 07:04:44 AM
Sept 10 (Reuters) –
BRAZIL 2018/19 SOYBEAN EXPORTS SEEN AT 70 MILLION TNS VERSUS 70 MILLION TNS IN AUGUST FORECAST AND 83.257 MILLION TNS IN 2017/18 – CONAB
BRAZIL 2018/19 SOYBEAN CROP SEEN AT 115.030 MILLION TNS VERSUS 115.072 MILLION TNS IN AUGUST FORECAST AND 119.282 MILLION TNS IN 2017/18 – CONAB
BRAZIL 2018/19 TOTAL GRAIN CROP SEEN AT 242.138 MILLION TNS VERSUS 241.335 MILLION TNS IN AUGUST FORECAST AND 227.679 MILLION TNS IN 2017/18 – CONAB
BRAZIL 2018/19 TOTAL CORN CROP SEEN AT 99.984 MILLION TNS VERSUS 99.312 MILLION TNS IN AUGUST FORECAST AND 80.709 MILLION TNS IN 2017/18 – CONAB
BRAZIL 2018/19 CORN EXPORTS SEEN AT 35.000 MILLION TNS VERSUS 34.500 MILLION TNS IN AUGUST FORECAST
AND 23.820 MILLION TNS IN 2017/18 – CONAB
BRAZIL 2018/19 SOYBEAN YIELDS SEEN AT 3,206 KG/HA VERSUS 3,208 KG/HA IN AUGUST FORECAST AND 3,394 KG/HA IN 2017/18 – CONAB
BRAZIL 2018/19 TOTAL CORN YIELDS SEEN AT 5,715 KG/HA VERSUS 5,730 KG/HA IN AUGUST FORECAST AND 4,857 KG/HA IN 2017/18- CONAB

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were higher once again yesterday. Trends are turning up in SRW but are still mixed in the other markets. Demand has shown up at current levels and there is now talk that Wheat prices are finally cheap enough. There has not been any demand news for Wheat so far this week and USDA will only issue the monthly supply and demand updates for this market.. The US Dollar remains very strong and that is hurting the ability of US exporters to sell Wheat. Saudi Arabia tendered for Wheat last week and released the results yesterday but did not show origins. Ideas are that the Wheat will be sourced from Russia and Europe. The US Winter Wheat harvest is over and the Spring Wheat harvests in the US and Canada are moving along. September can often be a month when Wheat futures bottom out but it is hard to make a case for a big rally as the US must try to compete with other world sellers for business and against Corn and other feed grains for business inside the US.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be near to above normal. Northern areas should see scattered showers this week. Temperatures should be near normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be variable.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are up with objectives of 485 and 487 December. Support is at 478, 469, and 467 December, with resistance at 483, 486, and 496 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 399, 395, and 389 December, with resistance at 406, 408, and 414 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 499, 492, and 487 December, and resistance is at 511, 514, and 518 December.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed a little higher again yesterday and the market is trying to establish a new trend higher. The market is waiting for the USDA reports on Thursday. Traders anticipate that USDA will be able to lower yields and lower harvested area in the reports on Thursday. Field yield reports from Texas and Louisiana are less than last year in all cases and average to below average. Initial harvesting is now taking place in Mississippi, Missouri, and Arkansas. Ideas are that field yields will be less in these states as well. Milling quality is said to be good to very good at this point in the harvest. Smut has been reported in Texas away from Houston, but the smut has not affected the milling quality so far.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up with objectives of 1211, 1213, and 1231 November. Support is at 1195, 1184, and 1174 November, with resistance at 1209, 1224, and 1233 November.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Sep 11
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—-World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 14.40 9.19 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 14.06 9.42 0.00
Brokens 8.69 —- —-

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed a little higher as USDA released its updated condition ratings that showed a three-point drop in the good to excellent ratings. Support also came from the second sizable Mexican Corn purchase for the week. Current weather forecasts are now calling for moderate to above normal temperatures for the next couple of weeks and this weather would be beneficial to crop development. Traders are said to think that there will be more than enough Corn for any demand. Demand ideas remain bad with no one looking for much improvement in the short-term. The weekly export sales reports have been weaker and show that there is strong competition for sales. Domestic demand ideas remain bad after the president gave smaller oil refineries waivers from using bio fuels including ethanol. The move got the agricultural community very upset and the president is now being forced to find alternative demand for the products. That has proven difficult so far. Feed demand has been week for the last year as feeders look for other grains such as Wheat. USDA is expected to lower overall demand in its reports this week that could more than offset and reduced production estimates. USDA should cut yield estimates tomorrow but will probably not change harvested area much if at all.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to down with objectives of 353 December. Support is at 358, 352, and 349 December, and resistance is at 363, 365, and 368 December. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with objectives of 279 and 288 December. Support is at 272, 270, and 265 December, and resistance is at 277, 280, and 285 December.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were higher yesterday on talk of new Chinese interest in buying US ag products going into the meetings scheduled for next month. Talk that USDA can lower production estimates also supported futures. USDA left conditions ratings close to unchanged in its updates on Monday night. Current weather outlooks call for moderate to above normal temperatures for the next two weeks, and this is great for Soybeans as the crop needs all the time it can get to finish developing after the very late start to the planting season this year. USDA production and supply and demand reports will be issued on Thursday. Analysts look for a slight reduction in yield estimates and slightly lower production when compared to June. Bearish traders and analysts look for virtually no change in the USDA estimates. The weather has been cool and is not pushing Soybeans or Corn to maturity, but this could change if the extended forecasts come to fruition. Analysts will concentrate on the USDA pod counts in this report. Producers and the Pro Farmer Crop Tour participants noted that pod counts were down sharply this year, so the traders will look to USDA to confirmed the reduced counts
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 866, 861, and 855 November, and resistance is at 879, 882, and 897 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 291.00, 289.00, and 286.00 October, and resistance is at 296.00, 298.00, and 300.00 October. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 2800, 2770, and 2740 October, with resistance at 2850, 2900, and 2930 October.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was lower again yesterday and trends remain down for the short-term on the charts. A stronger Canadian Dollar helped create a little selling interest. There has not been a frost or freeze yet to hurt the seed. Reports from the field indicate good yields. Palm Oil was lower on weaker demand. The market appears to be in a short-term and shallow correction now. Export data from the private sources has been lower so far this month. The market still expects limited upside potential, but the charts show that the market still has potential to move higher over time. There are ideas that there is plenty of production and supply to meet any expected demand. Stocks in Indonesia have increased for four straight months.
Overnight News: AmSpec said that Malaysian Palm Oil exports so far this month are 393,129 tons, down 23.2% from last month. SGS said that exports are now 337,570 tons so far this month, down 29% from last month.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down with objectives of 436.00 November. Support is at 437.00, 434.00, and 431.00 November, with resistance at 447.00, 450.00, and 453.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are down with objectives of 2140 and 2090 November. Support is at 2150, 2120, and 2110 November, with resistance at 2200, 2240, and 2260 November.

DJ Malaysia’s August Palm Oil Exports 1.73M Tons; Up 16% -MPOB
Malaysia’s palm oil exports were up 16% on month at 1.73 million metric tons in August, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board said.
The following are details of the August crop data and revised numbers for July, issued by MPOB:
August July Change
On Month
Crude Palm Oil Output 1,821,548 1,740,759 Up 4.64%
Palm Oil Exports 1,732,888 1,489,171 Up 16.37%
Palm Kernel Oil Exports 86,696 86,865 Dn 0.19%
Closing Stocks 2,251,831 2,378,099 Dn 5.31%
Crude Palm Oil 1,290,565 1,338,126 Dn 3.55%
Processed Palm Oil 961,266 1,039,973 Dn 7.57%

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry this week in the south burt showers and storms in the north. Temperatures should be near to above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
September +31 Dec +155 Dec +70 Sep +11 Nov +12 Oct N/A
October +37 Dec +80 Dec +12 Nov
November +42 Dec +80 Dec +22 Nov
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Sep 10
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 419.80 -20.00 dn 3.00
Basis: Thunder Bay 449.40 10.00 dn 0.40
Basis: Vancouver 456.40 17.00 dn 0.40
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada
(news@marketsfarm.com, or 204-414-9084)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Sep 11
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 136,972 lots, or 4.73 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-19 – – – 3,410 3,420 3,410 -10 0 24
Nov-19 3,420 3,448 3,420 3,420 3,448 3,429 -19 10 310
Jan-20 3,455 3,457 3,414 3,425 3,450 3,432 -18 125,324 201,024
Mar-20 – – – 3,473 3,473 3,473 0 0 32
May-20 3,680 3,680 3,646 3,655 3,675 3,659 -16 11,636 55,132
Jul-20 3,671 3,671 3,671 3,671 3,667 3,671 4 2 16
Corn
Turnover: 445,910 lots, or 8.39 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-19 – – – 1,813 1,813 1,813 0 0 2,400
Nov-19 1,852 1,858 1,847 1,849 1,851 1,851 0 32,468 334,112
Jan-20 1,882 1,884 1,872 1,874 1,878 1,877 -1 364,244 1,199,872
Mar-20 1,896 1,902 1,894 1,896 1,900 1,898 -2 72 4,746
May-20 1,943 1,944 1,931 1,935 1,938 1,937 -1 47,286 278,322
Jul-20 1,955 1,955 1,946 1,948 1,951 1,951 0 1,840 2,556
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,161,970 lots, or 61.48 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-19 2,928 2,928 2,859 2,860 2,928 2,862 -66 410 2,038
Nov-19 2,917 2,928 2,883 2,889 2,902 2,906 4 65,552 272,760
Dec-19 2,904 2,915 2,871 2,876 2,897 2,893 -4 2,888 2,508
Jan-20 2,872 2,882 2,837 2,840 2,865 2,859 -6 1,745,088 2,072,396
Mar-20 2,826 2,830 2,807 2,807 2,832 2,814 -18 130 762
May-20 2,758 2,766 2,735 2,739 2,752 2,753 1 347,670 776,108
Jul-20 2,765 2,772 2,747 2,747 2,756 2,762 6 220 1,880
Aug-20 2,769 2,769 2,762 2,765 2,777 2,765 -12 12 132
Palm Oil
Turnover: 804,488 lots, or 39.10 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-19 4,720 4,720 4,720 4,720 4,710 4,720 10 36 8,992
Oct-19 – – – 4,814 4,804 4,814 10 0 8
Nov-19 – – – 4,810 4,800 4,810 10 0 8
Dec-19 – – – 4,778 4,768 4,778 10 0 6
Jan-20 4,828 4,886 4,812 4,848 4,838 4,842 4 729,064 522,154
Feb-20 4,926 5,000 4,926 4,930 4,912 4,940 28 12 716
Mar-20 – – – 4,978 4,950 4,978 28 0 2
Apr-20 – – – 5,118 5,090 5,118 28 0 2
May-20 5,028 5,072 5,006 5,044 5,018 5,032 14 75,376 110,104
Jun-20 – – – 5,060 5,046 5,060 14 0 6
Jul-20 – – – 5,076 5,062 5,076 14 0 604
Aug-20 – – – 5,108 5,094 5,108 14 0 2
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 1,112,898 lots, or 67.74 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-19 – – – 6,044 6,044 6,044 0 0 1,942
Nov-19 – – – 6,078 6,078 6,078 0 0 4
Dec-19 6,034 6,144 6,034 6,040 6,084 6,070 -14 8 20
Jan-20 6,090 6,148 6,042 6,066 6,060 6,092 32 1,006,376 894,124
Mar-20 6,102 6,120 6,102 6,120 6,126 6,110 -16 4 520
May-20 6,018 6,080 5,990 6,016 6,002 6,028 26 106,510 233,330
Jul-20 – – – 6,022 6,022 6,022 0 0 526
Aug-20 – – – 6,184 6,158 6,184 26 0 0
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.