Gold Analysis

The chart is key to this analysis.

(GCQ25) 

GCQ25

From last week,

The market held 38.2% at 3195.00 on 5/15/25 keeping the trend very strong, but has been unable to make a new high since then. It did fail to make a new high at a 78.6% retracement on 6/16/25 and that did send the market over $200 lower and is caught between 78.6% retracements. Overall even with the sideways trade since the ATH the trend remains very strong. The key area to get through above is 78.6% of the 6/16/25 high and 6/30/25 low at 3426.00 and the 3446.20 major Gann square, failing to get above this can send the market quickly lower, when and if it can clear this area it can cause another sharp rally like the one between 4/7/25 and 4/22/25.

This week's high hit the key area above between 78.6% (3426.00) and the 3446.20 major Gann square. With 3426.00 being a 78.6% retracement we will be using the ONE44 78.6% rule for the short term target. It has hit a 78.6% retracement twice before, once on 5/7/25 and that sent it to 38.2% back to the 11/14/25 low at 3198.00 on 5/15/25 and then on 6/16/25 when it sent it back to the previous major Gann square at 3292.50. We will be watching to see if this can be the end of the Bull run for now, or just another setback building for another big run higher.
 

Use 3446.20 as the swing point for the week.

Above it, there are only major Gann squares above to look for resistance and then use as the swing point when closed above, the next two are 3619.60 and 3774.40.

Below it, the short term target is 78.6% the other way at 3292.50, per the ONE44 78.6% rule, this is also a major Gann square. If this is all it can setback, look for a quick run to new highs. The longer term target is 23.6% back on the continuation chart at 3107.00. The long term swing point from the same move is 38.2% at 2840.00.

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