“Shootin’ The Bull”

by Christopher B Swift

​7/31/2025

Live Cattle:

In my opinion, and in no way to be confused with fact, but seemingly when President Trump announced a deal with Mexico, the market dove deep in the red and continued that way to limit down in the October contract.  There has been no mention of the reopening of the border, but I am going to speculate that with agreements made with Mexico, on whatever it is the Trump administration wanted from them, will allow for Secretary Rollins to suggest greater protocol's have been met to reopen the border.  If this announcement does not come before Friday's close, I would expect traders to attempt to gain back some of Thursday's losses, providing you with an opportunity to complete any marketing's of recently acquired, historically priced feeder cattle.  If no announcement is made over the weekend, I am unsure what may take place.  If it does, then I would anticipate cattle prices to decline rapidly and in great price expanse. Copper fell 20% in one trading session with the bulk of in 5 minutes.  It would take 4 days of expanded limits to produce a 20% decline in cattle prices. Most every contract created an bearish engulfing pattern on the candlestick charts with all three days after the report having been wiped clean from the slate.  

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Feeder Cattle:

Read the above and own at the money put options on every newly acquired head you have paid a historical price for. This is a sales solicitation.​  If there is a reopening of the border, October, November and January feeder cattle will be impacted greatly, with fats from April to August of '26 impacted greatly by the increase of available inventory.  Recall this.  In the same week, the TCFA commended Secretary Rollins for reopening the border, a few days later, R-Calf commended Secretary Rollins for reclosing the border.  Both have a very vested interest in the southern supplies. One is reliance upon the inventory coming from the southern border while the other is reliant upon price remaining elevated from keeping inventory south of the border.  

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​Corn:

Corn took a look at contract low and decided to back away.  Beans softened and wheat was a tad lower.  ​

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Energy:

​Energy was lower today, but seemingly a mild correction from this weeks gains.  I anticipate energy to trade higher. 

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Bonds:

Bonds remain in a triangle and are closer to the high than low today.  A breakout to the upside, along with the rising dollar may suggest to some that the economy is about as good as it can get with multiple trade deals having been secured and still significant inflation on the consumer in ways that are not necessarily seen in government reports.  

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 “This is intended to be or is in the nature of a solicitation.”  Futures trading is not for everyone. The risk of loss in trading futures can be substantial; therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and there is no assurance that your trading experience will be similar to the past performance.

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