Grain Spreads: No Friends
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Commentary
The Bean market has no friends as of the moment unless they are the sell any rally type of person. What is there to say? The weather is ideal, good to excellent conditions at 70%, and demand in question as new crop sales into China are largely absent. For the week November beans sold off 30 cents. It is eerily similar to last year where weather conditions were optimal for bumper crop conditions in June and July, only to see weather turn hot and dry in mid-August through September. Beans rallied 1.20 from the lows. We could see the same type of action repeat itself in 2025, as a heat dome develops in the SW grain belt next week where temps heat up in these areas and rains dissipate. However, funds will sell the rumor and buy the fact on these types of potentials. That means the hot/dry in the SW growing areas need to move into the Great Lakes areas to stimulate the funds to cover shorts and perhaps get long. Keep in mind also that China was absent from any type of bullish export program last year at this time. They emerged later as aggressive buyers besting the USDA export program. Managed money short approximately 50K in beans while record short meal of 138K. In bean oil they are long 40K in my opinion per last CFTC data as of Tuesdays close. Shift changes in weather will drive the beans higher first and foremost with demand news running a far second in most importance for price discovery. Beans need a story in August similar to 2024. If not it’s a grind to 9.50 and then possibly 9.20. A close over 10.10 and more importantly 10.35 basis November is needed to turn the charts bullish. Should this happen, look for beans to rally to 11.10.
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Sean Lusk
Vice President Commercial Hedging Division
Walsh Trading
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