Tesla (TSLA) investors have experienced a rollercoaster ride so far this year. From CEO Elon Musk’s controversial political moves to mounting questions about long-term prospects, shareholders have faced no shortage of volatility. Now, all eyes are on July 23, when Tesla will release its highly anticipated second-quarter earnings results, providing critical insights into the company’s current health and future trajectory.

In this article, we’ll break down what investors can expect from Tesla’s Q2 results. So, Tesla stock fans, mark your calendars — this earnings report could set the tone for the rest of the year.

About Tesla Stock

Valued at a market cap of $1 trillion, Tesla (TSLA) is a prominent innovator dedicated to accelerating the global transition to sustainable energy. The Elon Musk-led powerhouse designs, develops, manufactures, leases, and sells high-performance fully electric vehicles, solar energy generation systems, and energy storage products. It also offers maintenance, installation, operation, charging, insurance, financial, and various other services related to its products. In addition, the company is increasingly focusing on products and services centered around AI, robotics, and automation.

Shares of the EV maker have slumped 21% on a year-to-date basis. The stock recently faced renewed selling pressure after Musk announced the formation of a new political party, the America Party, which drew backlash from President Donald Trump and sparked concerns about potential consequences for Musk’s businesses.

Tesla Quarterly Deliveries Fall Again

Tesla’s quarterly vehicle delivery numbers always draw attention on Wall Street, as they serve as a key indicator of the company’s success. The company’s first quarter was its weakest in a while, as the company undertook major factory upgrades to prepare for increased production of the refreshed Model Y. Also, part of the weakness stemmed from consumers pulling back from Tesla due to CEO Elon Musk’s controversial political activities. As a result, the company’s deliveries fell to under 337,000, the lowest level in about 3 years, leading most analysts to anticipate a sharp rebound in the second quarter. However, data from China and Europe between April and June has been relatively weak, prompting many analysts, who initially projected well over 400,000 deliveries for the quarter, to gradually lower their estimates.

On July 2, Tesla reported Q2 deliveries of 384,122 vehicles, falling slightly short of the consensus estimates of 387,000. Notably, Tesla has been missing delivery expectations since the third quarter of 2024. The latest numbers marked a 14% year-over-year decline and the second consecutive quarterly drop. Still, TSLA stock rose nearly 5% after the delivery report, as the data was better than feared and exceeded the most bearish forecasts on Wall Street, including JPMorgan’s estimate of 365,000 deliveries.

While the Q2 delivery numbers indicate 14% sequential growth, the year-over-year decline underscores the broader challenges Tesla is facing. For example, demand for electric vehicles is softening in the U.S., the company’s largest market. Moreover, Tesla’s new car registrations in Europe slumped during the first five months of 2025, as consumers pushed back following Musk’s support for right-wing candidates in the region. Tesla’s performance is also being challenged by intensifying competition. Chinese automakers like BYD (BYDDY) are rapidly expanding and introducing competitive electric vehicles at lower price points. BYD, often seen as a major threat to Tesla in China, produced 606,933 battery electric vehicles (BEVs) in the second quarter, out of a total of 1.12 million new-energy vehicles.

Even Tesla’s energy storage division can’t avoid the cloud that’s hanging over the company. For the second quarter in a row, deployments of its Powerwall and Megapack stationary storage products have fallen. The company deployed 9.6 gigawatt-hours (GWh) of storage in Q2, a decrease of 0.8 GWh compared to the first quarter.

All Eyes on Tesla’s Q2 Results

Tesla is set to report its second-quarter earnings on Wednesday, July 23, after the market closes. Consensus estimates project double-digit declines in both Tesla’s revenue and earnings. Analysts expect earnings per share of $0.41, down 21.72% year-over-year and revised from the initial Q2 estimate of $0.85 at the start of the year, on revenue of $22.36 billion, representing a 12.32% drop.

The company’s automotive segment is expected to remain weak. In the first quarter, a steep decline in delivery volumes and lower average selling prices resulted in a 20% year-over-year drop in Tesla’s automotive revenue, which in turn caused a 9% decrease in the company’s total revenue. Since the first part of the equation is already known, investors will now watch whether discounts continue to erode average selling prices. Meanwhile, automotive gross margins will also be in focus after falling to 16.3% in Q1, and they are expected to stay under pressure.

Another key area to watch is the company’s energy business, which — though currently the smallest — is its fastest-growing revenue segment. This segment accounted for 10% of the company’s total revenue in 2024. Despite a slight sequential decline in deployments in Q2, Tesla’s energy storage revenue is expected to demonstrate solid growth, helping to partially offset weakness in the automotive segment. Meanwhile, growth in services revenue is also expected to help offset weakness in the automotive segment.

After pulling its full-year guidance in Q1, management stated it would “revisit our 2025 guidance in our Q2 update,” making next week’s call particularly important. Investors will also be looking for updates on the more affordable Tesla model, originally slated for launch in the first half of the year, as well as the company’s outlook on the loss of EV tax credits and the potential impact on its margins.

Investors will also be closely watching for updates on Tesla’s robotaxi initiative, given its important role in the company’s valuation and Musk’s vision for this technology. Musk has expressed his belief that millions of customer vehicles will be part of the Robotaxi program by the end of next year. Tesla launched its robotaxi pilot program in Austin, Texas, on June 22, deploying a small fleet of Model Y vehicles operating within a limited area and initially accompanied by human safety monitors. Notably, only 22 days after the public launch, Tesla expanded its service area in Austin, extending it to about 4 miles larger than Waymo’s coverage. With that, investors will pay close attention to the earnings call for insights from Musk on potential expansion plans.

Meanwhile, UBS reaffirmed its “Sell” rating on Monday, July 14 with a $215 price target ahead of Tesla’s Q2 results, describing the stock as “fundamentally overvalued.” “We see deteriorating fundamentals in the auto business, the removal of 100% margin credit revenue, likely negative revisions to estimates, and a CEO that [is] arguably distracted from the business,” UBS analysts wrote in a note.

Options Market Sentiment on Tesla Stock

Examining the July 25, 2025, option chain (first after the earnings report), the $322.50 CALL option has a bid/ask spread of $13.10/$13.20, while the $322.50 PUT option shows a spread of $13.50/$13.60. Keep in mind that this option strike is the closest to the current stock price. We can now calculate the expected price movement by using the midpoint prices of these options:

13.55 (322.50 put) + 13.15 (322.50 call) = 26.7/321.67 = 8.3%

Based on current prices and using the long straddle strategy, the options market suggests that TSLA stock could move approximately 8% by next week’s options expiration from the $322.50 strike price. That would place the stock in a trading range of $295 to $348.40.

Notably, at the $322.50 strike price, open call options exceed open put options by roughly 5 to 1, with 1,256 calls open compared to 250 puts. This reflects bullish sentiment in the options market, suggesting expectations of an upward move following the earnings report.

What Do Analysts Expect for TSLA Stock?

The Wall Street community remains divided on Tesla, as the stock currently has a consensus “Hold” rating. While 12 analysts view the stock as a “Strong Buy” and two as a “Moderate Buy,” 16 suggest holding, and 10 have assigned a “Strong Sell” rating. Notably, the stock currently trades at a premium to its mean price target of $296.83.